Editorial | Clarity before renewables bid
Jamaica
The Government’s announcement that it will next month go to market for 200 megawatts (MW) of renewable electricity generation capacity is welcome after the several hiccups and delays in its renewable programme.
However, there are several issues that require clarity from the energy minister, Daryl Vaz, before the Generation Procurement Entity (GPE), the body charged with overseeing bids for national power projects, puts out its request for proposals (RFP). These include the strategic and/or policy basis upon which this RFP will rest, what data informs it, and whether the 200 MW will represent new or replacement capacity.
Mr Vaz suggested that the Holness administration, in going to market at this time, is not driven solely by its policy framework, but that it is also responding to pressure from potential investors.
“There is a pent-up demand and frustration by existing renewable companies and also international companies, who have been knocking on the door for years,” Mr Vaz said in Parliament last week, in disclosing the planned April RFP.
It is curious, and requires explanation, that the minister, and the Government, would be willing to proceed without completing its own review of the energy sector. At least, it has given no indication that it has done so.
It is recalled that last July when he pulled the plug on a parliamentary committee’s review of the island’s Electricity Act, Mr Vaz argued that the war in Ukraine had so changed the global energy dynamics that Jamaica had to re-evaluate the assumptions that informed the information and analysis upon which the exercise rested.
Up to that point, the Government’s declared policy was that by 2030, half (an aggressive expansion of the original target of 30 per cent) of the island’s electricity (and 20 per cent of all energy) would be generated from renewable fuels – compared to approximately 13 per cent at present. Jamaica imports more than 20 million barrels of fossil fuel annually to help meet its energy demand.
The Office of Utilities Regulation , whose regulatory remit includes the electricity sector, recently estimated that it will require US$1.2 in investment to meet the current 2030 target – the installation of 530 gigawatt hour of capacity in seven years’ time.
In the absence of the outcomes of the review upon which Mr Vaz embarked in September, and/or an update of the Government’s 2020 Integrated Resource Plan for the electricity sector – which was promised for the end of last year – it is not clear whether the administration still expects electricity consumption to grow at the rate it projected three years ago, or if it will outpace the expected peak growth rate of less than two per cent a year into the mid-2030s.
Neither is it known what are the technical and pricing parameters and other assumptions that will inform the GPE’s RFP, including whether the authorities consider electricity storage technology sufficiently well advanced, and their cost-competitiveness at a point that renewables can figure in the mix of the 20 per cent peak of demand (around 660 megawatts) that the electricity supplier must maintain as reliable reserves. Having that reserve in renewables would lessen the need for this back-up to be built around fossil fuels.
These are discussions on which all stakeholders should have an opportunity to weigh in before irrevocable decisions are made.
CONTROVERSIAL PROVISION
Additionally, despite his cryptic remark that the 200 MW would be open to international tender and not be subjected to any first-right-of-refusal arrangement, it remains uncertain whether it is new capacity or an intended bypass of a controversial provision of the Electricity Act of 2015, for whose removal independent power generators had lobbied.
Under the law, Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) – ‘the sole buyer’ – which enjoys a monopoly on the transmission, distribution and supply of electricity, has first-right-of-refusal for the replacement of its own generation capacity that has technically reached obsolescence. But the cost of the replacement capacity, which ultimately works through to what consumers pay for electricity, must be on the basis of an ‘avoided cost’ established by the authorities – the cost JPS would have in investment, amortisation and operation if it did not make the investment. If JPS’s (or whoever is the single buyer) price exceeds the authorities’ avoided cost, which is to be reviewed biennially, the replacement is supposed to fall to open bidding.
This matter is relevant at this time because JPS has 171.5 megawatts of generating capacity that is now technically up for replacement, to which the law would obviously apply. Little, though, has been publicly said about how either the company or the Government intends to proceed. It is unlikely that the Electricity Act, its review having foundered in the legislature, could, at this point, be gutted of the provision.
Given the timeline declared by Mr Vaz, the period is short before the GPE issues its RFP. He has much to do before then, assuming this deadline can be kept.
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